AndreArzoo@berkeley.edu
On April 22nd, 2009, the Republics of Armenia & Turkey signed a “Road Map” agreement, brokered by the United States and Switzerland, setting forth the foundation to normalize relations between the two neighbor states without the implication of any set preconditions, preconditions that would link the normalization of Turkey-Armenia Relations to the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict between Azerbaijan and the Armenian populations of both the unrecognized Nagorno Karabakh Republic and of the Republic of Armenia, as well as the Recognition of the Armenian Genocide by Turkey.
Preconditions such as these have, since Armenia's Independence in 1991, prevented any formation of solid relations between the governments of Turkey and Armenia. Also, in 1993 the Turkish Republic closed its Eastern border with Armenia as a collaborative move with the Republic of Azerbaijan, who closed its Western border with Armenia as well, in response to the then militarily engaged Nagorno Karabakh Conflict (1991-94). The closing of Armenia's Eastern and Western borders, two of Armenia's four standing borders - and the last closed border(s) in the European Sphere, is an intentional policy aimed at economically, politically, and socially, isolating the Armenian Republic so that it will eventually fold & concede to Turkish & Azerbaijani regional demands, specifically over Nagorno Karabakh, and destabilize any form of development in Armenia until the government is eventually given in to do so.
These recent “reactivation of talks” between the governments of Turkey and Armenia began due to the exclusion of these set preconditions; as a result of the Georgian-Russian War in the Summer of 2008, bringing about further regional instability in the South Caucasus, because of the increased likelihood of an American Recognition of the Armenian Genocide due to President Obama’s election, the recent instability of the Armenian administration following the political and social turmoil of the 2008 Armenian Presidential elections, March 1st clashes, and emergence of the Armenian Opposition (Armenian National Congress - HAK). Soon after Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan took office, Turkish President Abdullah Gul visited the Armenian capital of Yerevan on the basis of a formal invitation by the newly elected President Sargsyan, so as to watch the World Cup Qualifying match between the two nations, and thus, triggered the beginning of this now ‘normalization of relations’ process.
This dialogue, soon after, began to be known as the ‘Football Diplomacy’ process between Turkey and Armenia, eventually lead to the signing of a Turkish & Armenian “Road Map” document in April, and now, these said ‘protocols’ in the beginning of September.
Since the signing of the Turkey-Armenia “Road Map,” no physical or political progression has taken place; Turkey's Eastern border with Armenia remains closed, Turkey has reintroduced preconditions to normalization and reaffirmed its linking of relations with Armenia to a pro-Azerbaijani Resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict, as well as repeatedly denouncing any form of Armenian Genocide Recognition effort by the Armenian-American Activist body within the American Institutional Framework. The reactivation of talks within the Road Map framework only began immediately after President Sargsyan’s public criticism of Turkey's lack of initiative or progress in the negotiation framework - announced through various media interviews, such as Radio Free Europe & the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC).
These new ‘Turkey-Armenia Protocols’ were agreed upon literally the day after President Sargsyan’s public criticism of Turkish inactivity.
Essentially, what has happened is a continual foot-dragging of negotiations, on the intentional behalf of the Turkish Government, while Turkey has once again gained positive international public relations recognition - showing itself as a progressive element toward resolving these regional disputes while at the same time sidelining any direct international support or intervention, as a result - as well as aborting any substantially progressed efforts toward Genocide Recognition in the United States. The Government of Armenia, on the other hand, has once again fallen behind in this diplomatic game, not only losing Genocide Recognition in America as another potential chip on both the negotiating table and in the International Recognition Campaign, but has further strengthened Turkey’s links of relations between Turkey & Armenia with that of Armenia & Azerbaijan - regressing Armenia's position on the Nagorno Karabakh Negotiations - and helping facilitate the further prolonging of opening its borders with Turkey.
Thus, in plain analysis, not only has the current Armenian Government given unnecessary concessions within the diplomatic struggle, it has also recklessly thwarted the formal Recognition of the Armenian Genocide within the United States Congress and by the newly elected American President Barack Obama -who he himself publicly acknowledges the Armenia Genocide as a historical fact. Additionally, the Armenian government's flawed and short-sighted foreign policy has also reactivated a very hazy and secretive negotiation process over Nagorno Karabakh with the Azerbaijan Republic - one that seems to be in a state of “shuttle-diplomacy,” that is, where a 100 year old standing conflict over the Karabakh Region is being quickly and dangerously shoved through a quick process of resolution without properly addressing and discussing the details behind the conflict, not to mention a realistic and long-lasting resolution so as to prevent a future conflict or war…
To read this article in its entirety, please visit www.ArmenianAmerica.wordpress.com
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