Armenian Presidential Elections: Business as Usual (Winter 08)

Alexan Yerevanian
ayerevan@ucla.edu

More than half of Armenia’s registered voters flocked to the polls to elect the next President of the Republic of Armenia on February 19, 2008. The results are in: Serzh Sargsyan has won a landslide victory with a majority of the votes (52.8% according to the Central Election Commission), with Levon Ter-Petrossian far behind in second place (21.5%).

Although campaign appearances and events were often well-attended and vibrant, young voters were small in number. The Armenian youth’s apathy for elections stems mostly from their negative perception of the government. Rampant corruption throughout the government and in the electoral process reinforces the idea that their votes don’t count.

The election results have been met with violent protest, with riot police and security forces attempting to disperse rioting citizens. Kocharian has called a State of Emergency to "prevent a threat to Constitutional order." The Republican Party of Armenia denies any tampering with election results, but the tens of thousands of protestors who gathered in Liberty Square on February 21 to protest the election results believe otherwise.

Levon Ter-Petrossian, who was present at the protest with several other key opposition figures, has been garnering the support of several key government and military officials to throw the election results out, and they demand a recount. Most notably Armenia’s deputy prosecutor-general, Gaghik Jhangiryan, has supported the protests, and Vahan Hovhannisyan, the ARF candidate has resigned as Deputy Speaker of Parliament having declared in a television interview, "If we discover people falsifying results, we shall push in their faces!"

In addition, OSCE reported that media coverage was heavily skewed in Sargsyan’s favor. Videos taken via phone cameras on websites such as youtube.com expose illegal activities such as ballot stuffing in Armenian polling stations.

The Republican Party of Armenia stated that all citizens have the right to free speech, but warned that any unlawful or violent activity would lead to the involvement of law enforcement. Meanwhile, the Central Election Commission has recounted votes at some polling stations, and Western organizations have considered the election standards to be "acceptable." However, OSCE’s handling of the election monitoring has caused a large dispute over its credibility.

Despite the activity in Yerevan, politics is not the center of attention in border villages which are more concerned with dealing with their own poverty than elections. Disaffected small towns and villages facing economic and population decline feel neglected by the government, and have become numb to false promises of aid and infrastructure given by politicians, despite a few government sponsored programs designed to assist rural areas.

International interest in the Armenian elections has mostly been a series of banal congratulations. Azerbaijan has little to no opinion on the election, as it is not expected to change the situation in Nagorno-Karabagh. The European Parliament merely commented that the election was up to Western standards. The United States congratulated Armenia for conducting an active election. Turkish President Abdullah Gul congratulated Serzh Sargsyan on his victory, hoping that it will lead to improved relations between the two nations.

Russia has been actively involved in the Armenian elections on several levels. Both Sargsyan and Ter-Petrossian are very keen on their relations with Russia, each having visited Moscow over the course of their campaigns several times. Robert Kocharian had clear political and diplomatic ties with Russia, flying to Moscow often in times of critical military or political decisions, which automatically makes Sargsyan very close to Moscow.

Ter-Petrossian, on the other hand, has been highly critized for leaning towards the West. His regime was ultimately destroyed when Western-mediated treaties which involved the ceding of the provinces of Meghri and Zankezour in exchange for additional land in Karabagh nearly passed under his leadership; a move which probably would have been disastrous for Armenia’s economy and national security. (However, Ter-Petrossian asserts that Kocharian and Sargsyan were also behind the treaty, claiming only the ill-fated Vazgen Sargsian and Karen Demirjian opposed it.)
So what can we expect to change with this election? It doesn’t seem like much. With Kocharian’s right-hand man placing him as prime minister, the executive status and agenda is unlikely to change dramatically. Ter-Petrossian’s call for protests are an almost expected by-product of the young republic’s attempts at establishing democracy and probably will not cause any dramatic changes in the regime.
The elections probably will not dramatically affect international relationships either. Armenia’s heavy reliance on Russia and unwavering stance on Karabagh will probably continue. While reforms and shifting geopolitics will lead to progress in Armenia, we can generally expect the government to run business as usual.